Cryonics, Cryptography,
and Maximum Likelihood
Estimation
by Ralph C. Merkle, Ph.D. |
 |
This paper was published in the Proceedings of the First Extropy Institute
Conference, held at Sunnyvale, California in 1994. Some changes have been made
to this version. A more annotated version is available on Ralph
Merkle's Cryonics Pages.
IntroductionMost people, if they think of cryonics at all, think of
Woody Allen in Sleeper, Sigorney Weaver in Aliens, or Mel Gibson
in Forever Young. The hero, after spending decades or centuries in the
deep freeze, thaws out gradually and somewhat painfully. Rather stiff from the
cold, the warmth of the new era slowly penetrates into their chilled limbs until
they at last stretch and look about the world with renewed interest and
vitality.
Not!
The damage done by the cryonic suspension (and the probably poor condition of
the patient before the suspension even began) are quite sufficient to insure
that nothing even remotely resembling these scenarios will ever take place.
First, there are fractures in the frozen tissues caused by thermal strain -- if
we warmed our hero up, he'd fall into pieces as though sliced by many incredibly
sharp knives. Second, suspension is only used as a last resort: the patient is
at least terminal and current social and legal customs require that the patient
be legally dead before suspension can even begin. While the terminally ill
patient who has refused heroic measures can be declared legally dead when he
could in fact be revived (even by today's technology), we're not always so
lucky. Often, there has been some period of ischemia (loss of blood flow), and
the tissue is nowhere near the pink of health. The powerhouses of the cells, the
mitochondria, have likely suffered significant damage. "Floculent densities"
(seen in transmission electron microscopy) likely mean that the internal
membranes of the mitochondria are severely damaged, the mitochondria themselves
are probably swollen, and cellular energy levels have probably dropped well
below the point where the cell could function even if all its biochemical and
metabolic pathways were intact. The high levels of cryoprotectants used in the
suspension (to prevent ice damage) have likely poisoned at least some and
possibly many critical enzyme systems. If the cryoprotectants didn't penetrate
uniformly (as seems likely for a few special regions, such as the axonal regions
of myelinated nerve cells: the myelin sheath probably slows the penetration of
the cryoprotectant) then small regions suffering from more severe ice damage
will be present.
All in all, our hero is not going to simply thaw out and walk off.
And yet the literature on freezing injury, on ischemia, and on the other
damage likely caused by a cryonic suspension forced me to conclude that cryonics
would almost surely work: how can this be?
Molecules and peopleFundamentally, people are made of molecules. If
those molecules are arranged in the right way, the person is healthy. If the're
arranged in the wrong way, the person is unhealthy or worse. While a surgeon's
knife does indeed rearrange molecular structure, it does so only in the crudest
fashion. The living tissue itself is what really arranges and rearranges the
intricate and subtle molecular structures that underlie life and health. When
the tissue is too badly damaged, when intracellular levels of ATP are too low to
provide the energy the tissue needs to function, when its own internal structure
is disrupted, it can no longer heal itself. Today's surgical tools, gross and
imprecise at the cellular and molecular level, can no more aid in this process
than a wrecking ball could be used to repair a Swiss watch.
Technology advances, though. The Third Foresight Conference on Molecular Nanotechnology
(Palo Alto, 1993) was attended by about 150 research scientists, chemists, computational
chemists, physicists, STM researchers, and other research scientists from a
range of disciplines. By a show of hands, almost all think we will develop a
general ability to make almost any desired molecular structure consistent with
physical law, including a broad range of molecular tools and molecular machines.
Over half think this technology will be developed in the next 20 to 40 years.
A medical technology based on such molecular tools will quite literally be able
to arrange and rearrange the molecular structure of the frozen tissue almost
at will. The molecules in frozen tissue are like the bricks in a vast lego set,
bricks which in the future we will be able to stack and unstack, arrange and
rearrange as we see fit. We will no longer be constrained by the gross and imperfect
medical tools that we use today, but will instead have new tools that are molecular
both in their size and precision. Repair of damage, even extensive damage, will
simply not be a problem. If molecules are in the wrong places we will move them
to the right places, hence restoring the tissue to health.
Information theoretic deathThis ability, awesome as it will be, will
not let us cure all injuries. Before we can move a molecule to the right place,
we must know what the right place is. This is not always obvious. Consider, for
example, what happens when we cremate a person and stir the ashes. There's more
than damage. We can't tell where anything was nor where it should go. We haven't
a clue as to what the person looked like, let alone the structure of the tissues
in their nervous system. This kind of damage will be beyond even the most
advanced medical technology of the future. A person who has been cremated is
truly dead, even by the criteria of the 21st or 22nd century.
This true and final death is caused by loss of information, the information
about where things should go. If we could describe what things should
look like, then we could (with fine enough tools, tools that would literally let
us rearrange the molecular structure) put things right. If we can't describe
what things should look like, then the patient is beyond help. Because the
fundamental problem is the loss of information, this has been called
information theoretic death. Information theoretic death, unlike today's
"clinical death," is a true and absolute death from which there can be no
recovery. If information theoretic death occurs then we can only mourn the loss.
It is essential that the reader understand the gross difference between death
by current clinical criteria and information theoretic death. This is not a
small difference of degree, nor just a small difference in viewpoint, nor a
quibbling definitional issue that scholars can debate; but a major and
fundamental difference. The difference between information theoretic death and
clinical death is as great as the difference between turning off a computer and
dissolving that computer in acid. A computer that has been turned off, or even
dropped out the window of a car at 90 miles per hour, is still recognizable. The
parts, though broken or even shattered, are still there. While the short term
memory in a computer is unlikely to survive such mistreatment, the information
held on disk will survive. Even if the disk is bent or damaged, we could still
read the information by examining the magnetization of the domains on the disk
surface. It's not functional, but full recovery is possible.
If we dissolve the computer in acid, though, then all is lost.
So, too, with humans. Almost any small insult will cause "clinical death." A
bit of poison, a sharp object accidentally (or not so accidentally) thrust into
a major artery, a failure of the central pump, a bit of tissue growing out of
control: all can cause "clinical death."
But information theoretic death requires something much worse. Even after
many minutes or hours of ischemia and even after freezing we can still recognize
the cells, trace the paths of the axons, note where the synapses connect nerve
cell to nerve cell -- and this with our present rather primitive technology of
light and electron microscopy (which is a far cry from what we will have in the
future).
It is interesting to note that "The classical methods for tracing neuronal
pathways are histological methods that detect degenerative changes in neurons
following damage. These staining methods provide a remarkably accurate picture
of neuronal projections in the central nervous system" [5, page 262]. Such
degenerative changes typically take days or weeks to develop. In many cases, the
actual nerve fiber need not be present at all: "Some injuries, such as the
crushing of a nerve, may transect peripheral axons but leave intact the sheath
that surrounds it. In such injuries the sheath may act as a physiological
conduit that guides regenerating axons back to their targets"[5, 264]. Thus
there are multiple sources of information about neuronal connectivity, the
actual neuron being only one such source.
If we can tell where things should go, then we can in principle (and
eventually in practice) restore the patient to full health with their memory and
personality intact.
Clinical trials to evaluate cryonicsHow can we tell if information
theoretic death has taken place? How can we tell if someone has been so injured
that they are beyond all help, both today and in the future? The medically
accepted method of evaluating any proposed treatment is to conduct clinical
trials: try it and see if it works. The appropriate clinical trials to evaluate
cryonics are easy to describe: (1) Select N subjects. (2) Freeze them. (3) See
if the medical technology a century (or more) from now can indeed revive them.
The clinical trials are ongoing (contact Alcor
at 480-905-1906 if you wish to join the experimental group -- no action is needed
to join the control group), but we don't expect the results to be available
for many decades. Which leaves us with a problem: what do we tell the terminally
ill patient prior to the completion of clinical trials?
This is not an entirely novel situation for the medical community. Often, new
and promising treatments are undergoing clinical trials at the same time that
dying patients ask for them. There is no easy answer, but in general the
potential benefits of the treatment are weighed against the potential harm,
using whatever evidence is currently available as a guide.
In the case of cryonics, the potential harm is limited: the patient is
already legally dead. The potential benefit is great: full restoration of
health. The medically conservative course of action is to adopt the strategy
that poses the least risk to the patient: freeze him. If there is any chance of
success, then cryonic suspension is preferable to certain death. This is also in
keeping with the Hippocratic oath's injunction to "do no harm."
If cryonics were free there would be no dilemma and no need to examine its
potential more carefully: we would simply do it. It is not free, and so we must
ask: how much is it worth? What price should we pay? Part of this question can
only be answered by the individual: what value do we place on a long and healthy
life starting some decades in the future?
We will leave these rather difficult questions to each individual, and
confine ourselves to a simpler question that is more accessible to analysis:
what is the likelihood that current suspension methods prevent information
theoretic death?
For information theoretic death to occur we would have to damage the neuronal
structures badly enough to cause loss of memory or personality. The structures
that encode short term memory seem particularly sensitive: they are likely not
preserved by cryonic suspension. The electrochemical activity of the brain is
stopped when the temperature is lowered significantly (as in many types of
surgery that are done after cooling the patient) so it is certainly stopped by
freezing, with probable loss of short term memory. But human long term memory
and the structural elements that encode our personality are likely to be more
persistent, as they involve significant structural and morphological changes in
the neurons and particularly in the synapses between neurons. Thus, we would
like to know if the structures underlieing human long term memory and
personality are likely to be obliterated by freezing injury.
The evidence available today suggests that the freezing injury and other
injuries that are likely to occur in a cryonic suspension conducted under
relatively favorable circumstances are unlikely to cause information theoretic
death.
Not all cryonic suspensions are conducted under "favorable circumstances;"
some circumstances have been decidedly unfavorable. When should we give up? How
much damage is required to obliterate memory and personality in the information
theoretic sense? What level of damage is sufficient to produce information
theoretic death?
CryptanalysisWhich brings us to cryptanalysis: the art and science of
recovering secret messages after they have been deliberately distorted and
twisted, ground up and then ground up again by a series of cryptographic
transformations carefully designed to obscure and conceal the original message.
In cryptography, the person who wants to send a secret message transforms it.
The Caesar cipher, for example, changed each letter in the message by "adding" a
constant. "A" becomes "C", "B" becomes "D," etc. Modern cryptographic systems
are more complex, but the principle remains the same.
Of course, enciphered messages are meant to be deciphered. We know that each
step in the scrambling process, each individual transformation that turns
"Attack at dawn!" into "8dh49slkghwef" is reversible (if only we knew the
key....). Surely this makes freezing and ischemia different from cryptography!
However, the basic "transformations" applied in a cryonic suspension are the
laws of physics: a physical object (your body) is frozen. The laws of physics
are reversible, and so in principle recovery of complete information about the
original state should be feasible.
Reversibility strictly applies only in a closed system. When we freeze
someone, there is random thermal agitation and thermal noise that comes from the
rest of the world: this source of random information is not available to the
"cryptanalyst" trying to "decipher" your frozen body (the "encrypted message").
In cryptanalysis, though, we don't know the key (which, as far as the
cryptanalyst is concerned, is random information mixed in with the plaintext).
The key can be very large: "book codes" use an agreed on piece of text (such as
a book) as the key to the code. In addition, some cryptographic systems add
random information to the plaintext before encryption to make the cryptanalysts
job more difficult.
So the question of whether or not we can revive a person who has been frozen
can be transformed into a new question: can we cryptanalyze the "encrypted
message" that is the frozen person and deduce the "plain text" which is the
healthy person that we wish to restore? Are the "cryptographic transformations"
applied during freezing sufficient to thwart our cryptanalytic skill for all
time?
It is commonplace in cryptography for amateurs to announce they have invented
the unbreakable code. The simple substitution cipher was once described as
utterly unbreakable[1]. Substitution ciphers can be broken quite trivially, as
we are now aware.
This weakness is not confined to amateurs. The German Enigma, to which the
Nazis war machine trusted its most sensitive secrets, was broken by the Allies
despite Nazis scientist's opinion that it was unbreakable[1].
It is also well known that erasing information can be much more difficult than
it seems. The problem is sufficiently acute that DoD regulations for the disposal
of top secret information require destruction of the media. (This poses an interesting
question: if a person with a top secret clearance is cryonically suspended,
is this a violation of security regulations? Would their cremation be required
to insure destruction of the information contained in their brain?)
Against this backdrop it would seem prudent to exercise caution in claiming
that freezing, ischemic injury or cryoprotectant injury result in information
theoretic death (and hence that cryonics won't work). Such prudence is sometimes
sadly lacking.
Rotor machines and Maximum Likelihood Estimation
We now consider a
particular method of crypanalysis, the application of Maximum Likelihood
Estimation (MLE), and discuss how it might be applied to frozen tissue.
The purpose of MLE is to determine the most probable configuration of a
system, given many individual (and possibly correlated) observations about the
state of that system.
MLE has been applied to World War II rotor machines[2]. While the connection
between cryptanalysis of rotor machines and inferring the neuronal structure of
frozen tissue might at first be obscure, the parallels are often compelling.
Rotor machines are designed to "scramble" the characters in a message by
transforming each individual character into some other character. Rotor machines
use a more complex transformation than the Caesar cipher. In particular, they
use a series of rotors. Each rotor, which resembles a hocky-puck in
shape, is a short cylinder with 26 contacts on each face (for a total of 52
contacts on the rotor). Each contact on one face is connected by a wire to a
single contact on the other face. If we assign the letters A through Z to the
contacts on one face, and do the same to the contacts on the other face, then
connecting the "P" on one face to a battery might make a voltage appear on (for
example) the "H" on the other face. A single rotor thus is a hard-wired
permutation of the 26 letters.
In the illustrations, we will pretend that the alphabet has not 26, but only
5 characters: A, B, C, D and E. This will make the examples that follow much
more manageable. The reader should be aware that real rotor machines have the
full 26 characters and contacts, and that we use 5-letter rotors only to
illustrate the concepts.
Figure 1: A Single Rotor.
A single 5-letter rotor is illustrated in figure 1. The illustration shows
the input "E" as active, producing an output "B."
If we put several rotors next to each other (like a stack of coins), the
contacts on one rotor will make electrical contact with the contacts on the
adjacent rotor. If we apply a voltage to the letter "E" on the first rotor in
the stack, we will be able to read off the voltage from some contact on the last
rotor. The electrical signal, instead of going through a single wire in a single
rotor, will have travelled through several wires in several rotors. Connecting
the 5 contacts on the last rotor to 5 lightbulbs, we can see at a glance which
output has been activated by our input signal.
If we just stack several rotors together and pass an electrical signal
through the stack, the result is actually no more complex than a single rotor,
e.g., one rotor with the proper wiring would produce the same permutation as a
series of rotors. The value of using several rotors becomes apparent if we
rotate individual rotors by different amounts, thus changing the electrical
connections in a complex and difficult to analyze fashion. Various mechanical
contrivances have been used to move the different rotors by different amounts,
but the important point here is that the result is a complex and changing
network designed to defy cryptanalysis.
The application of MLE to cryptanalysis of a multi-rotor system is rather
interesting. We assume, for the moment, that the series of motions that each
rotor goes through is known (which is usually true for such machines) but that
the pattern of wiring in the individual rotors is unknown. Thus, we don't know
which contacts on opposite faces of the rotor are connected, although we know
the general structure of the machine.
Rotor machines usually came with a set of pre-wired rotors. By selecting
which rotors were used and by setting the initial rotational position of each
rotor in the machine, the user could select a unique and hopefully difficult-to-
cryptanalyze cipher. In what follows, we will simply assume that the permutation
described by the wiring of each rotor is initially completely unknown, and will
not attempt to take advantage of the fact that each permutation was in fact
drawn from a relatively small set of possibilities.
The information typically available to the cryptanalyst is the ciphertext.
Fundamentally, to determine the plaintext from the ciphertext the plaintext must
contain redundancy. In English, for example, "e" is more common than "b." If the
cryptanalyst proposes a set of wirings for the rotors and says "Aha! this is the
solution!" then we would expect, upon deciphering the ciphertext, that there
would be more "e"s than "b"s. If, when we deciphered the message, we found that
"e" and "b" were equally common (particularly for a long message) then we would
likely conclude that the cryptanalysis was incorrect.
More generally, if the frequency distribution of the 26 letters obtained by
"deciphering" the ciphertext with a proposed solution is "smooth," i.e., if the
distribution could reasonably have been produced by chance assuming that all 26
characters were equally likely, then the proposed solution is almost certainly
wrong. If, on the other hand, the "plaintext" produced by a proposed solution is
"rough," i.e., the distribution of letters has the unlikely peaks and troughs of
English text, then the proposed solution is very likely right.
It would seem, however, that to use this "smooth" versus "rough" method, we
would have to try all the different possible rotors until we found the right
ones. The wiring in a single rotor encodes one of 26! different permutations,
and three such rotors encodes 26!*26!*26! different possibilities. Simple
exhaustive search would be rather expensive.
The problem that we face (common in cryptanalysis) is that the possible keys
are discrete, and different keys produce very different results. Thus, a "small"
change to a single rotor might produce a big (and hard to predict) change in the
deciphered message.
This can be overcome by mapping the discrete cryptanalytic problem into a
continuous cryptanalytic problem.
In the discrete case, either "a" is connected to "c" or it is not. There is
no halfway about it, no partial connection. In the continuous problem, we will
represent our state of knowledge of the rotors by allowing "partial" or
"probabilistic" connections. We might have a 40% chance that "a" is connected to
"c," and a 60% chance that "a" is connected to "e." Or there might be a 20%
chance that "a" is connected to "c," a 33% chance that "a" is connected to "e,"
a 12% chance that "a" is connected to "b," and a 35% chance that "a" is
connected to "d."
More generally, we can assign probabilities that any letter is converted to
any other letter. For our 5-character alphabet, we can assign a probability to
the connection between "a" and "a," "a" and "b," "a" and "c," "a" and "d," and
finally "a" and "e." This would give us a vector of probabilities, such as:
(10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 0%). Instead of percentages, we will adopt fractions, so
that the preceding vector will be denoted by (0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.0).
If we wish to describe the connections between all five input characters and
all five output characters, we will need five vectors. Thus, we can describe a
single rotor using a 5x5 matrix, as illustrated in figure 2. The particular
rotor described in figure 2 is actually a specific real rotor (the rotor
described in figure 1), for each row and each column of the matrix has a single
1 with all other entries being 0. The "1" in row A column C means that the input
A is connected by a wire to the output C. This matrix notation lets us describe
all possible real rotors.
Ciphertext
A B C D E
A 0 0 1 0 0
B 1 0 0 0 0
C 0 0 0 0 1
D 0 0 0 1 0
E 0 1 0 0 0
Plain
Text
Figure 2: A 5x5 matrix describing the rotor from Figure 1.
Ciphertext
A B C D E
A 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
B 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
C 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
D 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
E 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Plain
Text
Figure 3: A 5x5 matrix describing a rotor about which we have no information.
The great advantage of this notation is that it also lets us
describe our uncertainty about a rotor. For example, if we don't know which wire
is connected to what (the state of affairs when we begin cryptanalysis) then we
could use the matrix of figure 3. In this matrix, all the entries are 0.2. That
is, any input is equally likely (a priori) to be connected to any output. We
don't know what's connected to what, and this uncertainty is captured by the
matrix. The reader should note that this matrix does not correspond to any
"real" rotor. In some sense, it describes the probability that a specific
physical rotor is the "right" rotor (physical rotors are rotors whose matrix has
a single "1" in every row and column, with all other entries being "0").
How does this help solve our original problem? Yes, we can now use the three
"we don't know what's connected to what" rotors of figure 4 as the rotors in our
machine, but what does this gain us? How do we "decipher" the ciphertext, and
how do we decide if the resulting "plaintext" is smooth or rough?
When we decipher a given letter with a physical rotor, the result is another
letter. When we decipher C we get A. When we decipher a letter with a matrix, we
get a probability distribution over all letters. When we decipher C we might get
a 20% chance of an A, a 10% chance of a B, a 30% chance of a C, a 15% chance of
a D, and a 25% chance of an E. In vector notation, we get (0.2, 0.1, 0.3, 0.15,
0.25). When we decipher many letters with a physical rotor, we get a probability
distribution over our alphabet. When we decipher many letters with a
non-physical matrix, we also get a probability distribution over our alphabet.
We know how to measure "roughness" and "smoothness" in a probability
distribution: if all the letters are equally probable, the distribution is
smooth. If the letters are not equally probable, the distribution is "rough."
Our method of cryptanalysis is now clear. We start by assuming non-physical
rotors (as in figure 3) which represent our initial state of knowledge: all
permutations are equally likely. We can "decipher" the ciphertext with these
rotors, and compute the distribution. Initially, of course, the resulting
"plaintext" distribution is smooth. We can now make a small perturbation in our
matrix. We might, for example, make the connection between A and C slightly more
likely, while making other connections slightly less likely. We can again
decipher our ciphertext with this new (slightly modified) rotor. If the
distribution of the resulting plaintext is still smooth, we're no closer to the
answer. If the distribution is somewhat rougher, then we're moving in the right
direction.
In short, we can now make small changes and ask "Are we moving in the right
direction?" If the distribution of plaintext is rougher than it was, the answer
is "yes!" If the distribution of plaintext is smoother than it was, the answer
is "no!" Instead of playing a game of hide-and-seek where you only know if
you've found the answer when you actually stumble on it, we're now playing a
game where we can take a few steps and ask "Am I getting warmer or colder?" As
the reader might appreciate, this makes the cryptanalysis much easier.
There is actually greater sophistication in picking "good" directions than is
described here, but the additional mathematics involved is all based on the same
concept: we can tell when we're getting warmer or colder, and move in the
appropiate direction.
This type of method has been used to successfully cryptanalyze rotor machines
with three independent rotors over an alphabet of 26 characters on a rather
small computer in the late 1970's[2]. A larger computer should be able to handle
more than three rotors, although as the number of rotors increases the
cryptanalysis rapidly becomes more difficult. Generally, methods like this
either succeed or fail completely. If there is sufficient information for the
algorithm to start moving in the right direction, it will usually succeed. If
things are so confused that it can't even make an incremental improvement, then
it will fail utterly amid data that is totally confusing.
This appears to be a special case of a more general phenomenon. Hogg et. al.
said "Many studies of constraint satisfaction problems have demonstrated, both
empirically and theoretically, that easily computed structural parameters of
these problems can predict, on average, how hard the problems are to solve by
a variety of search methods. A major result of this work is that hard instances
of NP-complete problems are concentrated near an abrupt transition between under-
and overconstrained problems. This transition is analogous to phase transitions
seen in some physical systems."
Maximum Likelihood Estimation and cryonicsHow might this be applied to
cryonics? In general, frozen tissue can be analyzed to determine its structure.
The most information that can usefully be obtained about the frozen structure is
the location of each atom. (Purists might argue that we also need information
about electronic structure, but the electronic structure can almost always be
inferred from the locations of the nuclei. For those few cases where this might
not be the case, some additional information might be used, e.g., the state of
ionization of an atom). Future technologies will almost certainly be able to
give us information about the frozen tissue that approaches this limit: we will
know the coordinates of essentially every atom when we begin our
"cryptanalysis." Even today, SPM (Scanning Probe Microscopy) methods already
image individual atoms, thus demonstrating the feasibility in principle of this
kind of analysis. Economically producing a sufficient number of sufficiently
small instruments able to scan a sufficiently large volume should be feasible,
based on published proposals for molecular manufacturing systems[3].
The kind of information this gives us is shown in figure 4.
Figure 4: Frozen tissue at low temperatures can be fully described by listing
the coordinates and types of the atoms.
REMARK An example of the Brookhaven (or Protein Data Bank)
REMARK file format. This file format includes the type of
REMARK atom, the X, Y, and Z coordinates, and other
REMARK information (not shown).
REMARK
REMARK Atom X Y Z
HETATM 1 C 4.345 1.273 -12.331
HETATM 2 C 4.588 2.559 -13.195
HETATM 3 C 5.207 1.273 -11.095
HETATM 4 C 4.587 -0.015 -13.194
HETATM 5 C 2.967 1.273 -11.724
HETATM 6 N 3.431 2.503 -14.246
HETATM 7 C 4.375 3.884 -12.439
HETATM 8 N 6.121 2.503 -13.491
HETATM 9 O 4.947 -0.028 -10.418
HETATM 10 O 4.947 2.575 -10.419
HETATM 11 C 6.673 1.273 -11.440
HETATM 12 C 4.375 -1.339 -12.437
HETATM 13 N 3.431 0.041 -14.245
HETATM 14 N 6.121 0.041 -13.490
HETATM 15 O 2.836 -0.028 -11.011
HETATM 16 C 1.894 1.272 -12.781
HETATM 17 O 2.836 2.574 -11.012
HETATM 18 C 3.585 1.271 -15.031
HETATM 22 C 2.982 3.838 -11.807
HETATM 23 C 7.069 2.560 -12.244
.
.
.
.
.
The computational load implied by this approach is enormous. Again,
extrapolation of future computational capabilities strongly supports the idea
that we will have more than enough computational power to carry out the required
analysis, even when it quite literally entails considering every atom in our
brain[4, 6].
Analysis of the frozen tissue will, on a local basis, allow the recovery of
what might be called local neuronal structure or LNS. If the suspension
took place under favorable circumstances, the LNS will be substantially correct
with little ambiguity, that is, we will be able to assign a single
interpretation based on local information (e.g., this synapse connects this
neuron to that neuron; this axon carries information from one well identified
location to another well identified location, etc.). Under adverse
circumstances, the LNS will become increasingly ambiguous. An axon might have
one of two possible targets, which cannot be fully disambiguated based only on
local information. Which axon a synapse is connected to might not be
distinguishable based on the remaining local structure. This will result in a
situation where the LNS will not be a single, specific neuronal structure, but
will instead be a set of possible structures with initial probabilities assigned
based on local information.
Our experience with MLE suggests that ambiguous local neuronal structure can
be disambiguated by global information (just as ambiguous information about a
single rotor can be disambiguated using the ciphertext and the redundancy of the
plaintext). As in cryptanalysis, the fundamental observation is that neuronal
structures are redundant. We can use this redundancy to correct errors or
omissions in the LNS. We consider as an example the neuronal structures that
process visual information (not least because this system has been extensively
studied, and hence we have some reasonable idea of what's involved).
The retina is exposed to photons which describe the visual scene. This
information is processed initially in the retina, then transmitted along the
optic nerve to the lateral geniculate nucleus and from there to the primary
visual cortex in the occipital region. The output coming from the primary visual
cortex is highly characteristic: the image has been processed and basic image
elements have been isolated and identified. From our point of view, the
interesting thing is that certain types of input to the retina (a spot of light,
a line, a moving line, etc) produce characteristic outputs from the primary
visual cortex. We have, in short, "plaintext" (the input to the retina) and
"ciphertext" (the output of the primary visual cortex), a great deal of
knowledge about which "plaintext" can correspond with which "ciphertext." and
some knowledge about the structure of the "key" (the possible structures of the
neural circuits in the retina, lateral geniculate nucleus, and the primary
visual cortex).
Given that we have knowledge derived from the frozen tissue about the LNS in
the retina, the lateral geniculate nucleus, and the primary visual cortex, we
can then enter "plaintext" (images on the retina) and observe the resulting
"ciphertext" (neuronal outputs from the primary visual cortex) If the
"ciphertext" is innappropriate for the "plaintext," we can incrementally modify
the descriptions of the LNS and see if the resulting plaintext-ciphertext pairs
become more or less reasonable. If the result is more reasonable, we are moving
in the right direction and should continue. If the result is less reasonable we
are moving in the wrong direction and should stop and try some other direction.
More generally, the brain has many cortical areas connected by projections.
The processing in each cortical area and the information that can pass along
these projections is characteristic of the function being performed. When
innappropriate responses are observed, we can incrementally change the relevant
LNS in an appropriate direction (e.g., we can change the initial probability
vector which describes the state of the LNS by taking a small step in the
multi-dimensional hyperspace).
The high degree of redundancy in the brain is evident from many lines of
evidence. One of the more dramatic is the ability of the embryonic and infant
human brain to correctly wire itself up. Initially, the "wiring diagram" of the
brain is quite rough. As the brain receives input, the growing neurons utilize
the characteristic patterns of neuronal activity to quite literally make the
right connections. Individual neurons can determine, based only on local
information, that they aren't wired up correctly. They will either change
morphology (often dramatically) or (in the case of roughly half the neurons in
the growing brain) will actually die.
The same redundancy that allows the growing human brain to wire itself up can
be used to verify that we have correctly inferred the neuronal structure of the
frozen brain. If the characteristic neuronal behavioral patterns (simulated, of
course, on a computer) are innappropriate, then we have somehow erred in our
analysis and need to incrementally modify the LNS until it is appropriate.
This approach will let us start from a state of partial knowledge of the
original neuronal structure (perhaps caused by significant delays in the start
of suspension combined with an inadequate suspension protocol) and successively
improve that partial knowledge until we have fully reconstructed a neuronal
structure consistent with the original data.
If there has been so much damage that we are unable to infer sufficient local
structure to allow even an incremental improvement in our description of the
system, then this approach will fail. Published work on the cryptanalysis of
multi-stage rotor systems has already demonstrated an ability to infer the
wiring of the rotors even when there is no knowledge at all of the wiring in the
intervening stages. In the case of the frozen human brain, there is typically a
wealth of information about the neuronal wiring (or LNS) unless the structures
involved have quite literally been obliterated.
Or, as experience with erasing top secret media has demonstrated, it's hard
to get rid of information when sophisticated means of data recovery are
employed. And we'll have very sophisticated means of data recovery
available to us in the future.
References
- 1) The Code Breakers, by David Kahn, Macmillan 1967
- 2) Maximum Likelihood Estimation Applied to Cryptanalysis, by Dov
Andelman, 1979, Ph.D. Thesis, Stanford Dept. of Electrical Engineering.
- 3) Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery, Manufacturing, and Computation,
by K. Eric Drexler, Wiley 1992.
- 4) The Technical Feasibility of Cryonics, by Ralph C. Merkle, Medical
Hypotheses 39, 1992, pages 6-16.
- 5) Principles of Neural Science, third edition, by Eric R. Kandel,
James H. Schwartz, and Thomas M. Jesse, Elsevier 1991.
- 6) The Molecular Repair of the
Brain, parts I & II, by Ralph C. Merkle, Cryonics, 1994;
Vol. 15 No. 1, pages 16-31 and Vol. 15 No. 2, pages 18-30.
- 7) Phase transitions in constraint satisfaction search, Tad Hogg
et. al., http://www.hpl.hp.com/shl/projects/constraints/
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